The probability remains low, but if 2024 YR4 hits Earth, it is estimated that it could devastate an area of around 2,150 square kilometers - equivalent to more than 20 times the size of the city of Lisbon.
With a possible impact in 2032, asteroid 2024 YR4 worries scientists and world organizations . Space agencies monitor its trajectory and prepare strategies to protect countries identified as in “danger’s path” .
NASA and ESA have released new information about 2024 YR4. Discovered in December 2024, the asteroid is between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, and a collision with planet Earth could release an energy equivalent to 500 atomic bombs , causing significant destruction in densely populated areas.
According to the latest calculations, the probability of an impact has increased to 2.3%, raising global concerns . NASA has identified an “impact corridor” that includes northern South America, the Pacific Ocean, Experts point out that the rotation of the Earth at the time of impact will be decisive for the exact location . However, countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nigeria remain on alert as the main ones in the “path of danger” .
If 2024 YR4 hits Earth, it is estimated that it could devastate an area of about 2,150 square kilometers - equivalent to more than 20 times the size of the city of Lisbon . The impact would be comparable to the Tunguska event of 1908, which destroyed 2,000 square kilometers of forest in Siberia.
southern Asia, the Arabian Sea and sub-Saharan Africa .Given the gravity of the worst-case scenario, the UN has activated for the first time the “Planetary Security Protocol”, a response plan coordinated between NASA, ESA and other international agencies. Measures under consideration include sending kinetic “impacters” to deflect the asteroid, solar lasers or, as a last resort, the use of nuclear weapons.he asteroid will pass close to Earth in 2028, a crucial opportunity to obtain more precise data on its orbit and size. The James Webb Space Telescope will be used in March for detailed infrared observations, allowing for refined estimates of the asteroid's trajectory and dimensions.
Meanwhile, ESA maintains that 2024 YR4 is classified at level 3 on the Turin Risk Scale, meaning it deserves significant attention from astronomers and the public.
While the risk of impact is still considered low, regular updates on the situation ensure the world is prepared to act if necessary , ESA notes.
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